OtherExpires May 15, 2026

Will "Delilah" be said on ICEMAN?

Probability

42¢

1h

-23.5pp

24h

-2.0pp

24h Vol

$20.62

Liquidity

$36.21

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 23, 2026, 23:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:46
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 42¢; -23.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 462h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 77.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 462.2h

    LOW
  • 17:46Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 462h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-2.0pp over the last 24h, now 42¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

Drake is expected to release his new album "ICEMAN" in 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone on the specified transcript for any track on the officially released full "ICEMAN" album. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes. Samples or clips of audio where people are speaking or singing which are included in the album will qualify toward this market's resolution so long as it is included in the specified transcript. AI-generated audio will count toward this market's resolution so long as it is included in the specified transcript. In the case a term is censored on a relevant transcript, audio may be consulted to verify that a qualifying mention occurred. Misspellings or iterations of the listed term, including all grammatical or slang forms, or misspellings with extra, missing, or incorrect letters (ex: helloooooooo or heoll, for ‘hello’), will not count toward a “Yes” resolution, regardless of context or intent. Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market will resolve according to the initial release of the full album on a qualifying streaming platform. Releases consisting only of individual songs or remixes released later will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the audio transcripts for this album provided by the listed streaming platforms in the following order of priority: Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Music, Amazon Music, Tidal (e.g., Spotify will be used unless it does not provide a necessary transcript, then Apple Music will be used, etc.). If no such album is released in full by by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to based on what has been released up to that point. If the album is not released on any of the listed platforms by the specified end date, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
to the initial release of the full album on a qualifying streaming platformAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (77.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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