Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 1, 2026?

• 01
  Price move

  Up 12pp over 24h

  Now 100¢; +0.3pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Volume pressure

  Heavy volume on this book — 2.3× turnover

  $19.6k traded against $8.4k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

• 03
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

• 04
  Liquidity

  Thin liquidity

  Only $8.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.