Will Donald Trump visit Louisiana in 2026?
Probability
50¢
1h
+1.5pp
24h
-8.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$15.26
Probability (last 7 days)
-14.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 50¢; +1.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5976h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 90.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5976.2h
- 23:50SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5976h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-4.5pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: -17.0pp at 2d ago (to 51¢).
Show top 8 of 24 hourly moves
- 15:00 · +7.0pp → 59¢
- 12:00 · -7.0pp → 51¢
- 05:00 · -9.5pp → 53¢
- 02:00 · +7.0pp → 60¢
- 1d ago · -7.5pp → 52¢
- 2d ago · -17.0pp → 54¢
- 2d ago · -17.0pp → 51¢
- 2d ago · -10.5pp → 55¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryOfficial government informationLinkTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (90.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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