Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in May?
Probability
96¢
1h
+4.5pp
24h
+7.0pp
24h Vol
$154.45
Liquidity
$982.56
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 96¢; +4.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $983 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 91¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 675.5h
Price movement
+7.0pp over the last 24h, now 96¢.
Biggest hourly move: +46.5pp at 1d ago (to 89¢).
Show top 8 of 18 hourly moves
- 20:29 · +8.0pp → 96¢
- 1d ago · +46.5pp → 89¢
- 1d ago · +46.5pp → 89¢
- 1d ago · +46.5pp → 89¢
- 1d ago · +46.5pp → 89¢
- 1d ago · +46.5pp → 89¢
- 1d ago · +46.5pp → 89¢
- 1d ago · +39.5pp → 89¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.
Alerts
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