PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 19, 2026

Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

Probability

7¢

1h

+0.7pp

24h

+5.3pp

24h Vol

$3.1K

Liquidity

$29.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

+6.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:49
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 5pp over 24h

    Now 7¢; +0.7pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved up 5.3pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  3. 3

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 558h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 558.2h

    LOW
  • 17:49Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 5.3pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    MEDIUM
  • 17:49Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 558h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.6pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.

Biggest hourly move: +6.0pp at 03:00 (to 8¢).

Show all 16 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 17:00 · +4.0pp → 6¢
  • 15:00 · +5.1pp → 7¢
  • 14:00 · +5.4pp → 7¢
  • 12:00 · +5.3pp → 7¢
  • 11:00 · +4.8pp → 7¢
  • 09:00 · +4.9pp → 7¢
  • 08:00 · +4.9pp → 7¢
  • 06:00 · +5.3pp → 7¢
  • 05:00 · +4.9pp → 7¢
  • 03:00 · +6.0pp → 8¢
  • 02:00 · +5.4pp → 7¢
  • 00:00 · +4.3pp → 6¢
  • 23:00 · +4.3pp → 6¢
  • 21:00 · +4.3pp → 6¢
  • 20:00 · +4.3pp → 6¢
  • 18:00 · +3.5pp → 5¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventGeorgia Republican Senate Primary Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Georgia. If no 2026 Georgia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Georgia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
natoOfficial government sourceextracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket