Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
Probability
23¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$116.14
Liquidity
$17.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-14.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 23¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 560h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $17.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 559.9h
- 16:03SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 560h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:03PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 23¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 23¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 22¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 23¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 23¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 22¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 22¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 23¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 22¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 24¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 24¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 24¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 20¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 24¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 24¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 22¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 22¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 22¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -18.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 27¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).