Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?
Probability
31¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6013h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 9.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6013.1h
- 15:52SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6013h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 31¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 33¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 34¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 33¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 33¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 33¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 33¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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