Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $670b on April 30?
Probability
26¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$210.97
Liquidity
$2.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-10.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 26¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 104.2h
- 15:47SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 104h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 27¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 27¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.0pp
to 27¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 26¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 26¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 26¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 27¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 28¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.0pp
to 30¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 30¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 31¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 31¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 29¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 28¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 29¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -13.5pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.5pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 28¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 28¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the value of Elon Musk's net worth on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for April 30, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- BloombergNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).