Will Gunnar Henderson win the 2026 American League MVP Award?
Probability
26¢
1h
+8.3pp
24h
+16.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$811.70
Probability (last 7 days)
+15.9pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 16pp over 24h
Now 26¢; +8.3pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4833h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 47.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 4832.6h
- 15:24SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4833h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 22.9pp
to 32¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.1pp
to 23¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 15¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.4pp
to 17¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.6pp
to 24¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.6pp
to 20¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.9pp
to 17¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.9pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.4pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.6pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.0pp
to 21¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.3pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.8pp
to 32¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.3pp
to 23¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.7pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.7pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.6pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.3pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 8¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Nov 13, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (47.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).