SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Nov 13, 2026

Will Mike Trout win the 2026 American League MVP Award?

Probability

10¢

1h

-21.1pp

24h

+1.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$2.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

+7.2pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:59
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 10¢; -21.1pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 4829h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 15.3¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 4829.0h

    LOW
  • 18:59Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 4829h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.0pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.

Biggest hourly move: +32.3pp at 17:00 (to 35¢).

Show all 32 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 18:59 · +7.3pp → 10¢
  • 17:00 · +32.3pp → 35¢
  • 16:00 · +29.3pp → 32¢
  • 15:00 · +5.8pp → 9¢
  • 13:00 · +14.8pp → 18¢
  • 12:00 · +7.0pp → 10¢
  • 10:00 · +6.8pp → 10¢
  • 09:00 · +5.8pp → 9¢
  • 08:00 · +5.3pp → 8¢
  • 06:00 · +5.3pp → 8¢
  • 05:00 · +5.5pp → 8¢
  • 03:00 · +9.4pp → 12¢
  • 02:00 · +17.4pp → 20¢
  • 00:00 · +6.5pp → 9¢
  • 22:00 · +6.5pp → 9¢
  • 20:00 · +15.1pp → 18¢
  • 1d ago · +15.3pp → 18¢
  • 1d ago · +6.4pp → 9¢
  • 1d ago · +5.3pp → 8¢
  • 1d ago · +5.8pp → 9¢
  • 1d ago · +5.8pp → 9¢
  • 1d ago · +5.8pp → 9¢
  • 1d ago · +13.8pp → 17¢
  • 1d ago · +5.8pp → 9¢
  • 1d ago · +5.5pp → 9¢
  • 1d ago · +5.5pp → 9¢
  • 2d ago · +15.5pp → 19¢
  • 2d ago · +29.8pp → 33¢
  • 2d ago · +6.2pp → 9¢
  • 2d ago · +6.0pp → 9¢
  • 2d ago · +18.4pp → 22¢
  • 2d ago · +17.8pp → 21¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventMLB: 2026 AL MVP
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Most Valuable Player Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Nov 13, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (15.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

3 wallets
Open on Polymarket