Will Iain Black win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 832h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $19.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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The 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election is currently scheduled to be held on May 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Conservative Party of British Columbia.