Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.1pp
24h Vol
$882.23
Liquidity
$34.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.1pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Iran legalize gay marriage? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Iran legalize gay marriage? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 4792.4h
Price movement
+0.1pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 25¢+6.3
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $5.9M
- 7¢-4.0
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?
Geopolitics · Vol $2.9M
- 52¢+11.0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.7M
- 0¢+0.2
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.2M
- 0¢+0.2
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Geopolitics · Vol $1.0M
- 41¢+18.0
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14
Geopolitics · Vol $818.8K
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law. Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline. The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify. Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
iranReason
Question text contains the high-signal keyword "iran" — matched the Geopolitics rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Iran legalize gay marriage?"?
As of Sun, 14 Jun 2026 07:38:56 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.1pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$882.23 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $51.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $34.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.