Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by April 30?
Probability
10¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-4.5pp
24h Vol
$4.5K
Liquidity
$17.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 10¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 105h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $17.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 105.1h
- 14:52SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 105h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:52PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.0pp
to 10¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.5pp
to 10¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -31.5pp
to 10¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -32.5pp
to 10¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -34.5pp
to 11¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -48.5pp
to 11¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -48.0pp
to 12¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -39.0pp
to 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
If JD Vance visits Pakistan by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Pakistan. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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