SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will Jean Silva be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Probability

21¢

1h

-2.0pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$228.31

Probability (last 7 days)

+2.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 20:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:00
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 21¢; -2.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5981h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 31.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5981.0h

    LOW
  • 19:01Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 5981h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 21¢.

Biggest hourly move: -25.5pp at 12:00 (to 12¢).

Show all 30 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 19:00 · -3.0pp → 21¢
  • 17:00 · +8.5pp → 39¢
  • 15:00 · -17.5pp → 12¢
  • 14:00 · -24.5pp → 12¢
  • 12:00 · -25.5pp → 12¢
  • 09:00 · -5.5pp → 12¢
  • 08:00 · -6.5pp → 12¢
  • 06:00 · -12.0pp → 12¢
  • 05:00 · -14.5pp → 12¢
  • 03:00 · -6.5pp → 13¢
  • 02:00 · -4.0pp → 14¢
  • 00:00 · -9.0pp → 25¢
  • 21:00 · +3.0pp → 25¢
  • 20:00 · -8.0pp → 18¢
  • 1d ago · +13.0pp → 38¢
  • 1d ago · -6.5pp → 19¢
  • 1d ago · +16.5pp → 42¢
  • 1d ago · +23.0pp → 47¢
  • 1d ago · +13.0pp → 36¢
  • 2d ago · +10.5pp → 34¢
  • 2d ago · +16.5pp → 39¢
  • 2d ago · +15.0pp → 38¢
  • 2d ago · +19.0pp → 42¢
  • 2d ago · -4.0pp → 19¢
  • 2d ago · +16.0pp → 38¢
  • 2d ago · +8.0pp → 30¢
  • 2d ago · +9.0pp → 30¢
  • 2d ago · +13.5pp → 37¢
  • 2d ago · +8.5pp → 27¢
  • 2d ago · +11.5pp → 28¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWho will be UFC Featherweight champion at the end of 2026?
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Featherweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
to the official UFC Featherweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ETAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
ufc.com
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (31.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket