Official-Barley
0xd4140031e313f8d850740a80d2ee6653c925a4db
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
71
Open notional
$391.46
Total PnL
$-3.5K
Realised
$16.2K
Win rate
65%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 71- NO
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?
212 shares @ 31.4¢·now 69.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$146.56
$79.92
- NO
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?
200 shares @ 57.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$131.00
$17.00
- YES
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
252 shares @ 5.3¢·now 35.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$88.90
$75.65
- YES
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?
100 shares @ 39.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will David Sacks leave the Trump administration before 2027?
15 shares @ 59.1¢·now 41.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.99
$-2.64
- YES
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
75494 shares @ 18.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-13.7K
- NO
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?
35672 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-257.19
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
27820 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.7K
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 17?
22800 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-106.02
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
14969 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-104.78
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.89Jul 14, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.99Jul 13, 21:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.12Jul 13, 21:13 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$6.77Jul 13, 21:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$197.76Jul 13, 21:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.06Jul 13, 20:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.40Jul 13, 20:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.86Jul 13, 20:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.74Jul 13, 19:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.00Jul 13, 19:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$8.85Jul 13, 19:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.16Jul 13, 19:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.16Jul 13, 19:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.17Jul 13, 19:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.17Jul 13, 18:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$21.29Jul 13, 18:53 UTC
- MERGEWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$352.76Jul 13, 18:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$3.95Jul 13, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$230.53Jul 13, 18:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.14Jul 13, 18:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$7.2K
Trades
1
Buy share
0%
Window
May 19, 18:00 UTC → May 19, 17:55 UTC
- SELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$7.2K@71¢May 19, 17:55 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
70/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
65% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
31 closed markets, 65% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$7.2K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $140.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 26, 07:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.