Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 30 and June 5?
Probability
3¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+0.4pp
24h Vol
$148.37
Liquidity
$3.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-14.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $3.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1635.0h
Price movement
+0.3pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.
Biggest hourly move: -8.9pp at 02:00 (to 3¢).
Show all 21 hour-by-hour ticks
- 20:00 · -7.1pp → 4¢
- 19:00 · -6.9pp → 4¢
- 17:00 · -6.9pp → 5¢
- 15:00 · -7.4pp → 4¢
- 14:00 · -7.0pp → 5¢
- 12:00 · -8.6pp → 3¢
- 11:00 · -8.6pp → 3¢
- 09:00 · -8.2pp → 3¢
- 08:00 · -8.1pp → 3¢
- 06:00 · -8.8pp → 2¢
- 05:00 · -8.8pp → 2¢
- 03:00 · -8.3pp → 3¢
- 02:00 · -8.9pp → 3¢
- 00:00 · -8.7pp → 3¢
- 23:00 · -8.7pp → 3¢
- 21:00 · -8.5pp → 3¢
- 1d ago · -8.3pp → 3¢
- 1d ago · -7.7pp → 4¢
- 1d ago · -7.8pp → 4¢
- 1d ago · -8.5pp → 3¢
- 2d ago · -6.5pp → 11¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the listed date range during which Jerome Powell vacates his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Vacating his role refers to Powell actually ceasing to hold the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Announcements of Powell's resignation or firing will not alone qualify. The scheduled end of Powell’s term as Chair will not alone qualify. If Powell continues to serve as Chair on a temporary basis (e.g. until the confirmation of his successor), he will not be considered to have vacated his role as Chair. This market is restricted to Powell’s status as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Powell’s status as a regular member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not affect this market’s resolution. All dates refer to the Eastern Time zone (ET). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryFederal ReserveTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
12 wallets- 0xa5ef…29661.6K
- Sparse-Cookie187