Will João Fonseca win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid Open?
Probability
9¢
1h
-4.1pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$213.30
Liquidity
$328.09
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 202h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 16.1¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 202.2h
- 13:47SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 202h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:46PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 9¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.8pp
to 11¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.2pp
to 10¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 7¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.3pp
to 3¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.8pp
to 3¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.4pp
to 3¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.8pp
to 1¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.3pp
to 1¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.7pp
to 22¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.4pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.4pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.8pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.3pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.7pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.9pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -46.6pp
to 2¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -46.5pp
to 3¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Madrid Open Men’s Singles Tournament scheduled for April 20 - May 3, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Madrid Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Madrid Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after May 17, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Madrid Open (https://mutuamadridopen.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (16.1¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).