Will Julian Sahasrabudhe win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Probability
29¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 2300.7h
- 03:18SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 2301h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 31¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 31¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 32¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 32¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 31¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 30¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 25¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jul 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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