Will Katherine Clark be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?
Probability
5¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$7.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 6051h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 7.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6051.2h
- 20:46SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 6051h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 5¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 3, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.