Will Mike Johnson be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?
Probability
2¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$14.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.1pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $14.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6051.2h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 3, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.