Will Kevin Cramer vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

1. 1

   Up 26pp over 24h

   Now 93¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $12.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the nomination is rejected unanimously or without individual voting, this market will resolve to “No”. If no qualifying vote is held by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.