Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?
Probability
67¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-6.0pp
24h Vol
$94.22
Liquidity
$1.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 67¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 203h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $1.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 202.8h
- 13:12SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 203h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 74¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 74¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 73¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 73¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 72¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 68¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 65¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 72¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 68¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 70¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.0pp
to 65¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 65¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 67¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 69¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 68¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 67¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 67¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 65¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 66¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 65¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 65¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 65¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 73¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 80¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 66¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 66¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 66¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 66¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 Met Gala is scheduled for May 4, 2026. This year's theme is "Costume Art". This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lady Gaga attends the 2026 Met Gala. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).