Will Luis Gilberto Murillo place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

1. 1

   Down 2pp over 24h

   Now 0¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 850h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $7.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).