SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 31, 2026

Will Mainz 05 place 16th for the 2025-26 Bundesliga season?

Probability

43¢

1h

-3.0pp

24h

-3.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$10.95

Probability (last 7 days)

-4.5pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 12:00Apr 26, 2026, 08:44
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 1

    Down 4pp over 24h

    Now 43¢; -3.0pp in the last hour.

  • 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 831h with open resolution ambiguity.

  • 3

    Wide spread — 85.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 831.2h

    LOW
  • 08:45Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 831h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-2.0pp over the last 24h, now 44¢.

Biggest hourly move: -7.0pp at 15:00 (to 41¢).

Show 2 hourly moves
  • 15:00 · -7.0pp → 41¢
  • 14:00 · -5.5pp → 42¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventBundesliga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor)
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team finishes 16th in the 2025-26 Bundesliga. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to finish 16th in the 2025-26 Bundesliga (e.g. they mathematically cannot finish in 16th), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-2026 Bundesliga season is cancelled, postponed after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no 16th place team declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundesliga; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (85.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

4 wallets
Open on Polymarket