GeopoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will Marco Rubio visit China by April 30, 2026?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.8pp

24h Vol

$499.65

Liquidity

$11.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.5pp 7d
Apr 20, 2026, 10:00Apr 27, 2026, 08:59
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 1

    Thin liquidity

    Only $11.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5943.0h

    LOW

Price movement

-0.8pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

7
Same eventMarco Rubio visits China by...?
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

If Marco Rubio visits China by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Rubio physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Whether or not Rubio enters Chinese airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Marco Rubio, the US Federal Government, and the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Chinese government
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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