Will Marni von Wilpert advance from the CA-48 primary election?
Probability
27¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$11.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 895h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $11.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 895.0h
- 16:59SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 895h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:59PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 26¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.5pp
to 27¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 27¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.5pp
to 27¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.0pp
to 27¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 48th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- sos.ca.govOfficial government sourceextracted · highsos.ca.gov
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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