Energetic-Gasp
0xcceb22d524e186153cffe79f13c0aeb75889f030
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.9K
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$-115.91
Win rate
14%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Yo FDV above $100M one day after launch?
122 shares @ 80.2¢·now 67.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$81.81
$-16.13
- NO
Will Nick Kurtz hit 50 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
80 shares @ 86.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$78.76
$9.96
- YES
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?
80 shares @ 88.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Sep 8, 2026$78.28
$7.88
- NO
Will the DFM Real Estate Index hit 16,000 in 2026?
80 shares @ 95.0¢·now 94.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$75.36
$-0.64
- YES
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?
80 shares @ 91.7¢·now 91.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$73.28
$-0.08
- NO
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $13B by July 31?
80 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$72.40
$0.40
- NO
Relay FDV above $900M one day after launch?
80 shares @ 86.6¢·now 88.6¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$70.88
$1.60
- NO
Will Trump say "Frog" in July?
73 shares @ 93.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$70.63
$2.74
- NO
Huddle FDV above $20M one day after launch?
71 shares @ 94.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$69.22
$2.48
- NO
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $15B by July 31?
80 shares @ 86.0¢·now 86.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$69.04
$0.24
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?$8.50Jul 29, 01:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Dropbox (DBX) beat quarterly earnings?$2.00Jul 29, 01:34 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.19Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Groupon (GRPN) beat quarterly earnings?$29.15Jul 29, 00:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections?$0.48Jul 29, 00:19 UTC
- REWARD$86.65Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026?$39.48Jul 28, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hyperbeat launch a token by December 31, 2026?$43.83Jul 28, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the House pass a reconciliation bill by December 31?$61.60Jul 28, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?$48.00Jul 28, 22:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Junior Caminero hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?$0.23Jul 28, 22:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31?$1.47Jul 28, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnit FDV above $400M one day after launch?$25.20Jul 28, 21:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?$10.22Jul 28, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republican Party win the NE-02 House seat?$15.99Jul 28, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?$0.38Jul 28, 21:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trevor Lawrence finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns?$0.85Jul 28, 21:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Josh Jacobs finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most rushing yards?$4.57Jul 28, 21:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?$14.97Jul 28, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump post "Scam" on Truth Social this week?$4.80Jul 28, 20:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 36 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
36 closed markets, 14% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $15.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 11:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 01:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.