PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Oct 26, 2026

Will Michael Ford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$65.60

Liquidity

$21.3K

Probability (last 7 days)

-0.6pp 7d
Apr 19, 2026, 01:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:28
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 4409h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $21.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 4408.5h

    LOW
  • 19:28Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 4409h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Oct 26, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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