Will Moonshot have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
Probability
34¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$74.06
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryChatbot Arena LLM LeaderboardLinkTypeLeaderboard / benchmarkConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (66.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 34¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 66.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryChatbot Arena LLM LeaderboardLinkTypeLeaderboard / benchmarkConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (66.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1431.7h
- 08:17SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-2.0pp over the last 24h, now 34¢.
Biggest hourly move: -20.5pp at 13:00 (to 29¢).
Show top 8 of 11 hourly moves
- 06:00 · -8.5pp → 38¢
- 04:00 · -19.0pp → 28¢
- 03:00 · -6.0pp → 40¢
- 01:00 · -19.0pp → 31¢
- 17:00 · -10.5pp → 31¢
- 15:00 · -12.0pp → 38¢
- 13:00 · -20.5pp → 29¢
- 11:00 · -7.0pp → 42¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 38¢-3.5
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
AI · Vol $0.00
- 39¢+1.5
Will Alibaba have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
AI · Vol $0.00
- 40¢-0.5
Will ByteDance have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
AI · Vol $0.00
- 37¢0.0
Will Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
AI · Vol $0.00
- 38¢-1.0
Will DeepSeek have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
AI · Vol $0.00
- 44¢+2.5
Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
AI · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will any other company have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
AI · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0
Will Company B have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?
AI · Vol $0.00
- 1¢-0.3
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
AI · Vol $104.8K
- 0¢-0.3
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
AI · Vol $92.0K
- 83¢+16.0
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
AI · Vol $80.8K
- 16¢-13.0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
AI · Vol $72.4K
- 2¢-2.8
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
AI · Vol $69.6K
- 0¢0.0
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
AI · Vol $68.9K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.