Will Nikki Haley be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?

1. 1

   Up 9pp over 24h

   Now 17¢; +0.9pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Momentum signal firing

   Probability moved up 8.7pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover.

3. 3

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 20191h with open resolution ambiguity.

4. 4

   Wide spread — 29.4¢

   Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

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This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Republican Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official GOP sources, including https://www.gop.com. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.