UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires
Creator

Will North America Win the WSOP Main Event

Probability

87¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$6.66

Liquidity

$29.5K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Probability (last 7 days)

+7.0pp 7d
1007550250
87¢
Jul 16, 2026, 14:00 UTCJul 23, 2026, 13:26 UTC
updated 13:26:12 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-07-23T13-26Z

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will North America Win the WSOP Main Event State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will North America Win the WSOP Main Event State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 87¢.

Biggest hourly move: +6.5pp at Jul 20, 03:00 UTC (to 89¢).

Show top 8 of 40 hourly moves
  • Jul 20, 15:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 89¢
  • Jul 20, 14:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 89¢
  • Jul 20, 12:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 89¢
  • Jul 20, 11:00 UTC · +6.0pp → 89¢
  • Jul 20, 09:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 89¢
  • Jul 20, 07:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 89¢
  • Jul 20, 05:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 89¢
  • Jul 20, 03:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 89¢
updated 13:26:12 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 13:26:12 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to the continent associated with the winner (1st place) of the $10,000 No-Limit Hold'em Main Event at the 2026 World Series of Poker, held in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Main Event runs July 2–13, 2026, with the final table scheduled for August 3–5, 2026. The winner's continent is determined by the player's nationality (country of citizenship) as reported by the official resolution source. It is not determined by country of residence, birthplace, or where the player currently lives. Each country maps to a single continent under the following rules: Mexico, Central American countries, and Caribbean nations count as North America; transcontinental countries are assigned as follows: Russia counts as Europe, Turkey counts as Europe, and any country straddling continents is assigned to the continent of its capital city. If the reported winner holds dual or multiple nationalities, the market resolves to the continent of the nationality listed first by the official resolution source. If the Main Event is cancelled, or is postponed such that no champion is determined by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." If there is a tie or multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve to "Other". In the instance of a deal to split prize money, this market will resolve to the officially listed winner on the resolution site. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official WSOP website (https://www.wsop.com). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: low

Category

Other

Source

Default fallback

Reason

No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will North America Win the WSOP Main Event"?

As of Thu, 23 Jul 2026 13:26:12 GMT, YES is priced at 87% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +7.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$6.66 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $8.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $29.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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