Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Probability
84¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+3.0pp
24h Vol
$9.57
Liquidity
$94.13
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the next episode of the All-In Podcast added to the official YouTube playlist: https://wwwLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (24.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 84¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 4h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 24.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 4 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the next episode of the All-In Podcast added to the official YouTube playlist: https://wwwLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (24.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 3.6h
- 20:21SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 4h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+3.0pp over the last 24h, now 84¢.
Biggest hourly move: +34.0pp at 04:00 (to 86¢).
Show top 8 of 13 hourly moves
- 18:00 · +28.5pp → 84¢
- 17:00 · +26.0pp → 84¢
- 16:00 · +26.0pp → 84¢
- 14:00 · +26.0pp → 84¢
- 12:00 · +28.0pp → 86¢
- 10:00 · +28.0pp → 86¢
- 05:00 · +25.0pp → 87¢
- 04:00 · +34.0pp → 86¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
8- 77¢-9.0
Will "AI" be said 20+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Culture · Vol $4.17
- 15¢+0.5
Will "Closed source" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Culture · Vol $0.00
- 12¢-0.5
Will "Globalization" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Culture · Vol $10.00
- 22¢-0.5
Will "Hollywood" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Culture · Vol $3.13
- 73¢-20.8
Will "Anthropic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
AI · Vol $13.48
- 66¢+6.0
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Business · Vol $4.79
- 53¢-6.5
Will "Regulatory" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Culture · Vol $0.00
- 14¢0.0
Will "Competent" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Culture · Vol $0.00
Market Description
The All-In Podcast is scheduled to release episodes every Friday. (https://allin.com/episodes) This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the next released episode of the All-In Podcast. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old episodes or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution. Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market will resolve according to the next episode of the All-In Podcast added to the official YouTube playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLn5MTSAqaf8peDZQ57QkJBzewJU1aUokl. Specials or other videos posted on the YouTube channel but not included on the All-In Podcast playlist will not be considered. If no such episode of the All-In Podcast is aired by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio of the event.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
nvidiaReason
Question text contains "nvidia" — matched the Business keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?"?
As of Thu, 14 May 2026 20:21:11 GMT, YES is priced at 84% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +3.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$9.57 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $94.13. Spread between best bid and best ask: 24.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.