Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by August 31?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 3058h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $9.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Olivia Rodrigo officially releases a new album between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release. The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.