0xe5e59ff5136098bce48590e5ef70940bef9a485a
0xe5e59ff5136098bce48590e5ef70940bef9a485a
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.77
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$-133.79
Win rate
8%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
26 shares @ 19.0¢·now 3.1¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$0.82
$-4.18
- YES
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series?
174 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$0.78
$-0.82
- YES
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
26 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.17
$-0.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 5?
13742 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-54.97
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 5?
10884 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-10.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on April 5?
10780 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-53.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or below on April 9?
3919 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-78.39
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C or below on April 12?
2195 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-79.02
- YES
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
1840 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-18.39
- YES
Will "The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?
1652 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-16.52
Recent activity
- REDEEMTrump's face on US gold coin by July 4?$20.83Jul 5, 06:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill either Tate brother be arrested by June 30?$10.16Jul 4, 12:41 UTC
- REDEEMNocries signs for a pro CS2 organization by June 30?$14.18Jul 4, 09:41 UTC
- REDEEMKim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30?$18.95Jul 3, 11:40 UTC
- REDEEMSteve Bannon exonerated by June 30?$24.53Jul 2, 14:07 UTC
- REDEEMTaylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30?$7.74Jul 2, 01:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lana Del Rey release a new album by June 30?$7.69Jul 1, 14:36 UTC
- REDEEMMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?$14.33Jul 1, 07:06 UTC
- REDEEMTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?$39.57Jul 1, 07:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?$7.69Jul 1, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMNo-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?$7.69Jul 1, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMKash Patel out by June 30?$10.62Jul 1, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$17.27Jul 1, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMIsraeli parliament dissolved by June 30?$31.50Jul 1, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMSCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?$38.85Jun 30, 00:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYAleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?$8.26Jun 27, 18:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by August 31?$8.40Jun 11, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYZoe Kravitz and Harry Styles engaged by August 31?$5.11Jun 10, 02:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Moderates be part of the next Government of Denmark?$5.09Jun 10, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYSCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?$5.18Jun 2, 00:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $5.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 07:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 06:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.