Will OPEC crude oil production be above 20 million barrels per day in May?
Probability
10¢
1h
+3.0pp
24h
-27.0pp
24h Vol
$720.55
Liquidity
$479.45
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 27pp over 24h
Now 10¢; +3.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 15¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 11, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 961.4h
Price movement
-27.0pp over the last 24h, now 10¢.
Biggest hourly move: -35.5pp at 15:00 (to 7¢).
Show 7 hourly moves
- 22:33 · -32.0pp → 10¢
- 21:00 · -33.5pp → 9¢
- 19:00 · -30.0pp → 12¢
- 17:00 · -32.0pp → 10¢
- 15:00 · -35.5pp → 7¢
- 14:00 · -34.0pp → 8¢
- 12:00 · -16.5pp → 34¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026 The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d). The figure will be converted to barrels per day for resolution. Crude oil production for non-OPEC (including OPEC+) countries will not be considered. If the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for June 2026 is not released by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, or if it is released and the relevant data is not included, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, typically published at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of specificity that will be used to resolve this market.
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