PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Mar 31, 2027

Will Orla Nugent win the 2026 Galway West by-election?

Probability

1¢

1h

-10.8pp

24h

-10.5pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$2.3K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.4pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:43
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 11pp over 24h

    Now 1¢; -10.8pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 8141h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $2.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 8141.3h

    LOW
  • 18:44Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 8141h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-7.8pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

Biggest hourly move: -17.1pp at 2d ago (to 1¢).

Show all 28 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 18:00 · +5.8pp → 7¢
  • 16:00 · +4.3pp → 5¢
  • 15:00 · +11.2pp → 12¢
  • 14:00 · +5.7pp → 7¢
  • 06:00 · +7.2pp → 8¢
  • 05:00 · +10.3pp → 11¢
  • 03:00 · +8.3pp → 9¢
  • 02:00 · +9.8pp → 11¢
  • 00:00 · +10.2pp → 11¢
  • 22:00 · +7.5pp → 9¢
  • 20:00 · +10.9pp → 12¢
  • 1d ago · +8.5pp → 9¢
  • 1d ago · +11.1pp → 12¢
  • 1d ago · +10.3pp → 11¢
  • 1d ago · +8.2pp → 9¢
  • 1d ago · +7.8pp → 9¢
  • 1d ago · -4.4pp → 8¢
  • 1d ago · -12.2pp → 1¢
  • 1d ago · -10.4pp → 0¢
  • 2d ago · -3.5pp → 0¢
  • 2d ago · -5.6pp → 0¢
  • 2d ago · -17.1pp → 1¢
  • 2d ago · -3.0pp → 1¢
  • 2d ago · -15.8pp → 1¢
  • 2d ago · +11.3pp → 12¢
  • 3d ago · +5.3pp → 6¢
  • 3d ago · +7.0pp → 8¢
  • 3d ago · +3.3pp → 12¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventGalway-West By-Election Winner?
Category · Politics

Market Description

A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Mar 31, 2027
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
oireachtas.ie
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

13 wallets
Open on Polymarket