Will Paper Rex win VCT 2026: Pacific League Stage 1?
Probability
63¢
1h
+6.0pp
24h
+15.0pp
24h Vol
$294.81
Liquidity
$4.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 1h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+11.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 15pp over 24h
Now 63¢; +6.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 0h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 13.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 0 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires May 17, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (13.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 0.3h
- 23:39SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 0h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+15.0pp over the last 24h, now 63¢.
Biggest hourly move: -37.5pp at May 15, 13:00 UTC (to 14¢).
Show top 8 of 45 hourly moves
- May 15, 21:00 UTC · -29.0pp → 23¢
- May 15, 20:00 UTC · -29.0pp → 23¢
- May 15, 18:00 UTC · -28.5pp → 23¢
- May 15, 17:00 UTC · -28.0pp → 23¢
- May 15, 13:00 UTC · -37.5pp → 14¢
- May 15, 12:00 UTC · -37.0pp → 14¢
- May 15, 11:00 UTC · -36.5pp → 14¢
- May 14, 15:00 UTC · -29.0pp → 22¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the VCT 2026: Pacific League Stage 1 tournament, currently scheduled for April 3rd - May 17th, 2026. If this tournament is postponed, canceled, or a winner has not been declared by May 31st, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, Riot Games. However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/valorant/VCT/2026/Pacific_League/Stage_1) may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
vctReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "vct" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Paper Rex win VCT 2026: Pacific League Stage 1?"?
As of Sat, 16 May 2026 23:39:13 GMT, YES is priced at 63% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +15.0pp in the last 24 hours, +6.0pp in the last hour, and +11.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 17, 2026 (2026-05-17T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$294.81 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 13.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.