Will Partido Novo (NOVO) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 3871h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $3.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election. Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).