PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires May 19, 2026

Will Patrick Kopke-Hales win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$5.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 22:00Apr 25, 2026, 21:09
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  • 1

    Thin liquidity

    Only $5.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 554.8h

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventOregon Governor Republican Primary Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
nato
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

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