PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 7, 2026

Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$1.0K

Liquidity

$297.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 20:00Apr 25, 2026, 19:42
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 1012h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    UMA status: disputed

    An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: disputed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 1012.3h

    LOW
  • 19:42Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 1012h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventPeru Presidential Election Winner
Category · Politics

Market Description

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
Jun 7, 2026
UMA status
disputed
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
onpe.gob.pe
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • UMA status: disputed
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

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