Will Ray McAdam win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $19.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).