Will Real Sociedad qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League?
Probability
47¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$22.81
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 47¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 3052h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 93.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3052.1h
- 19:53SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 3052h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-2.5pp over the last 24h, now 46¢.
Biggest hourly move: -9.0pp at 2d ago (to 40¢).
Show all 18 hour-by-hour ticks
- 14:00 · -4.0pp → 43¢
- 06:00 · -4.0pp → 45¢
- 02:00 · -6.5pp → 43¢
- 00:00 · -3.5pp → 46¢
- 1d ago · -6.5pp → 43¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 45¢
- 1d ago · -5.0pp → 45¢
- 1d ago · -8.5pp → 41¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 45¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 46¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 46¢
- 2d ago · -3.5pp → 46¢
- 2d ago · -5.5pp → 44¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 45¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 45¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 45¢
- 2d ago · -5.0pp → 44¢
- 2d ago · -9.0pp → 40¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Conference League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Conference League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-26 LaLiga season is cancelled, postponed after August 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or the teams that qualified for the 2026-27 Conference League have not been officially confirmed by UEFA within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA and/or LaLiga; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (93.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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