SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 22, 2026
Creator

Will Sean Sweeney be the next Orlando Magic head coach?

Probability

78¢

1h

+19.1pp

24h

-21.1pp

24h Vol

$1.1K

Liquidity

$83.45

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 22, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (43.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+30.6pp 7d
1007550250
98¢
May 24, 2026, 07:00 UTCMay 31, 2026, 06:08 UTC
updated 06:09:06 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-31T06-09Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 21pp over 24h

    Now 78¢; +19.1pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 43.5¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 06:09Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW

Price movement

-21.1pp over the last 24h, now 78¢.

Biggest hourly move: +60.8pp at 12:00 (to 99¢).

Show top 8 of 61 hourly moves
  • 21:00 · +54.3pp → 99¢
  • 17:00 · +54.3pp → 99¢
  • 15:00 · +53.3pp → 99¢
  • 14:00 · +52.8pp → 99¢
  • 12:00 · +60.8pp → 99¢
  • 10:00 · +54.8pp → 99¢
  • May 30, 05:00 UTC · +52.3pp → 99¢
  • May 30, 03:00 UTC · +52.3pp → 99¢
updated 06:09:06 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 06:09:06 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventNBA: Next Magic Head Coach
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the person who is appointed as the next permanent head coach of the Orlando Magic. If no permanent head coach is appointed by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent head coaches will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent head coach’s appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Orlando Magic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

orlando magic

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "orlando magic" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Sean Sweeney be the next Orlando Magic head coach?"?

As of Sun, 31 May 2026 06:09:06 GMT, YES is priced at 78% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -21.1pp in the last 24 hours, +19.1pp in the last hour, and +30.6pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 22, 2026 (2026-05-22T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$1.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $83.45. Spread between best bid and best ask: 43.5¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

14 wallets
Open on Polymarket