ScienceMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 30, 2026

Will SpaceX have exactly 12 launches in April?

Probability

79¢

-0.1pp

24h

+0.4pp

24h Vol

$71.15

Liquidity

$121.36

Probability (last 7 days)

+66.0pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 16:55

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 103h with open resolution ambiguity.
2
Wide spread — 20.7¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 103.1h
LOW
16:55Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 103h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
16:55Price
Probability up 10.6pp
to 79¢
MEDIUM
15:00Price
Probability up 11.9pp
to 79¢
MEDIUM
14:00Price
Probability up 12.4pp
to 79¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability up 15.5pp
to 79¢
MEDIUM
11:00Price
Probability up 17.1pp
to 78¢
MEDIUM
09:00Price
Probability up 21.6pp
to 79¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability up 22.4pp
to 78¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability up 20.9pp
to 78¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability up 22.7pp
to 78¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability up 24.3pp
to 76¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability up 27.1pp
to 78¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability up 7.4pp
to 77¢
MEDIUM
22:00Price
Probability up 9.0pp
to 77¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability up 6.7pp
to 78¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability up 4.4pp
to 78¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability up 3.6pp
to 78¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability up 4.0pp
to 78¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.7pp
to 79¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.2pp
to 77¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 6.5pp
to 78¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 9.6pp
to 77¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 11.1pp
to 79¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 17.6pp
to 77¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 21.3pp
to 77¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 21.6pp
to 77¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 15.3pp
to 75¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 21.1pp
to 77¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 31.1pp
to 69¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventHow many SpaceX launches in April?

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Apr 30, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ETAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
spacex.com
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (20.7¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket