Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-steven-elliott-be-the-republican-nominee-for-mi-10 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-steven-elliott-be-the-republican-nominee-for-mi-10/markdown.

PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Aug 4, 2026

Creator

Will Steven Elliott be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?

Probability

3¢

+0.1pp

24h

-0.4pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$2.2K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Aug 4, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in th
Link
rnc.org
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (4.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-6.5pp 7d

3¢

May 29, 2026, 03:00 UTCJun 5, 2026, 02:02 UTC

updated 02:02:52 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-05T02-02Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
02
Spread cost
Wide spread — 4.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Aug 4, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in th
Link
rnc.org
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (4.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring

Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in th

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Steven Elliott be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Steven Elliott be the Republican Nominee for MI-10? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

Aug 4, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution
Market resolves in 1438.0h
LOW
02:02Signal
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
LOW

Price movement

-0.4pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

Biggest hourly move: -12.3pp at Jun 2, 06:00 UTC (to 3¢).

Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves

Jun 3, 21:00 UTC · -3.3pp → 3¢
Jun 2, 07:00 UTC · -3.1pp → 3¢
Jun 2, 06:00 UTC · -12.3pp → 3¢
Jun 2, 05:00 UTC · -6.4pp → 3¢
Jun 2, 03:00 UTC · -3.5pp → 3¢
Jun 1, 23:00 UTC · -3.0pp → 3¢
Jun 1, 20:00 UTC · -8.9pp → 3¢
Jun 1, 09:00 UTC · +5.1pp → 6¢

updated 02:02:52 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 02:02:52 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Steven Elliott be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?"?

As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 02:02:52 GMT, YES is priced at 3% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and -6.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Aug 4, 2026 (2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.8¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

11 wallets

YES

0xa5ef…2966868

Open on Polymarket