Will T1 make a roster change before July?
Probability
35¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$228.98
Probability (last 7 days)
+12.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 59.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1568.7h
- 15:18SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 31¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 35¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 31¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 27¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves T1's active League of Legends roster (defined as the active lineup listed on the T1 Liquipedia page: https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/T1) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active roster consists of the following players: Doran, Oner, Faker, Peyz, and Keria. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes. For the purpose of this market, "roster change" refers to any official signing, transfer, benching to inactive/reserve, release, retirement, or departure of a player from the active lineup. This includes adding new players (transfers, free agent signings, or loans), removing players (to inactive, free agency, or other teams), or any change resulting in a different active roster. Coach changes and temporary stand-ins for a single match will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be Liquipedia; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://liquipedia.net/leagueoflegends/T1News consensus
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (59.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).