Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5% before 2027?
Probability
73¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5977.4h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 73¢.
Biggest hourly move: +4.5pp at 2d ago (to 74¢).
Show 3 hourly moves
- 2d ago · +4.5pp → 74¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 72¢
- 2d ago · -4.0pp → 69¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryDepartment of the treasuryTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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