Will the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) win between 16 and 18 seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election?
Probability
42¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
+22.8pp
24h Vol
$159.05
Liquidity
$780.30
Probability (last 7 days)
+40.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 08:34SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.2pp
to 42¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.3pp
to 41¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.7pp
to 40¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.6pp
to 50¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.1pp
to 50¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 35.3pp
to 50¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 33.8pp
to 48¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 32.8pp
to 47¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 31.7pp
to 46¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.6pp
to 41¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 30.3pp
to 45¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 20¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 20¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 18¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 19¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 19¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.2pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.2pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.4pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 14¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) in the Kerala Assembly as a result of the next Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala. If results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (38.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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