Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Probability
23¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-15.5pp
24h Vol
$5.15
Liquidity
$3.4K
Probability (last 7 days)
-21.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 283.3h
- 10:44SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 283h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 10:44PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 23¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 24¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 23¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 21¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 24¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.5pp
to 23¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.5pp
to 22¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -20.5pp
to 24¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 23¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.5pp
to 23¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -23.0pp
to 22¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 23¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -22.0pp
to 23¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 24¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 37¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 37¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 38¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -24.0pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -25.0pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -21.0pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -19.0pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 43¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 43¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
United Kingdom local elections are scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Labour Party wins at least the listed number of council seats for the United Kingdom's metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A candidate will be considered an official candidate of the Labour Party if they are officially nominated by the Labour Party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with the Labour Party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Only elections for the United Kingdom’s metropolitan boroughs, London borough councils, unitary authorities, county councils, and district councils taking place on May 7, 2026, or rescheduled to within seven days thereafter, will be counted for this market. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections aren’t known by April 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 United Kingdom local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the respective council government.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (17.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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