Will the Liberals (L) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Probability
7¢
1h
-0.3pp
24h
+1.6pp
24h Vol
$10.13
Liquidity
$9.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 13, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (11.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+3.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 7¢; -0.3pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 11.3¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 13, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (11.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Sep 13, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 2489.1h
- 06:53SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+1.6pp over the last 24h, now 7¢.
Biggest hourly move: +15.6pp at May 29, 00:00 UTC (to 20¢).
Show top 8 of 48 hourly moves
- May 30, 20:00 UTC · +13.3pp → 18¢
- May 30, 06:00 UTC · +13.5pp → 18¢
- May 29, 08:00 UTC · +14.5pp → 18¢
- May 29, 06:00 UTC · +14.9pp → 18¢
- May 29, 00:00 UTC · +15.6pp → 20¢
- May 28, 20:00 UTC · +14.9pp → 18¢
- May 28, 14:00 UTC · +13.2pp → 17¢
- May 26, 21:00 UTC · +13.0pp → 16¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
parliamentary electionReason
Parliamentary election markets are Politics.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Liberals (L) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?"?
As of Mon, 01 Jun 2026 06:53:18 GMT, YES is priced at 7% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +1.6pp in the last 24 hours, -0.3pp in the last hour, and +3.4pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Sep 13, 2026 (2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$10.13 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $423.43. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $9.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 11.3¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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